It’s a complicated scenario with a legitimately elected government being run out of office, a new interim authority established and now the spectre of the Russian military looming large. In fact, they have, to all intents and purposes annexed the Crimea which is part of the Ukraine.
Where do things go from here?
Well it’s a very complicated situation and the Russians are being reviled in the West for their aggression and provocation but they may have a point. Does one poke a Tiger snake and expect it not to bite?!
I am not an analyst and our view here in the western world is filtered through our media outlets which contain their own bias so it is very hard at times to gain a proper perspective of what is going on.
It appears that many in the Ukraine want closer ties with western Europe but the country, a former Soviet Republic of course, has always been the plaything of the Russians and with Vladimir Putin becoming more nationalistic by the day, any change of direction in the Caucasus was always going to meet resistance from Moscow.
The Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine are populated by many ethnic Russians who would be very glad to see Putin come in and take control and see an end to the pro-western surge which has overtaken the government.
It’a hard call for the Russians. For years now their influence has been degraded by the creeping predominance of western thought in Europe which has slowly crept across the Steppes and into Russia itself. Vladimir Putin appears to be trying to re-establish Russia as a major world player and he has certainly returned his nation to status which makes it influential and, if not quite feared, then at least induces a vigilance in it’s neighbours which perhaps has not been evident for a couple of decades. Once again, when Russia sneezes the rest of Europe hears it.
The Ukraine has been a buffer for Russia between itself and the rest of Europe and if it flips over and snuggles up to those in the West then it creates a significant strategic problem for Moscow.
Russia has invested significant amounts of military hardware and resources into Ukrainian bases and a government in Kiev that is suddenly drawn to the west and cuddles up to Washington, London and Berlin may not be so disposed to having the Russian military on their land.
The Crimean Peninsula houses a naval base from which Russia’s Black Sea Fleet operates. It is not beyond the realms of possibilities that they would be asked to leave if an anti-Moscow faction takes over the Ukrainian government. Such a situation would be untenable for the Russians. Could the Black Sea become a regular destination for the United States Navy? It’s a situation the Russians will never allow. Or would any nation in similar circumstances.
The Russians do not want a United States client state of fifty million people sitting on it’s western border. Given the situation and the ethnic make up of eastern Ukraine and the increasingly nationalistic posturing of Vladimir Putin then the Russian reaction has been normal and perhaps should have been foreseen.
So, what happens now?
I would expect a puppet state, sponsored by Moscow to be set up in the Crimea. A state which only Russia will recognise but that won’t worry them too much. They know the Ukraine hasn’t the muscle to take it back and no one in the West is going to commit significant military resources to fight for a free Crimea.
If the Russians are moderate they will leave things there. The Ukraine may just have to suck on it. A Russian advance to Kiev would certainly throw a cat among the pigeons and set alarm bells off in the Europe’s most important capitals. A new Cold War could be in the offing.
Are we at a turning point in history? Are we seeing the might of Russia reasserting itself? Who knows but leaders across the globe will be wondering just what Putin’s ambitions are. Let’s hope the current crisis can be resolved without bloodshed. But it does look like the lights are going out on the Black Sea.
Have a nice day.
Strange Notations From a Laborious Life 